According to research by Gartner, IT spending is expected to grow in 2010 – albeit by a rather modest 4.6% – to approximately $3.4 trillion worldwide. This comes after a year in which IT spending decreased year over year by nearly the same amount, with a 2009 contraction of –4.6%.

Gartner predicts that IT services will be most significantly affected in 2010. The company foresees a 5.6% increase in IT services spending in 2010, far outpacing the 3.5% decline experienced by this segment in 2009. The largest year-over-year difference lies in computing hardware, where Gartner anticipates 1.6% growth. Whereas this may seem a paltry addition to IT spending, it is light years from the 13.9% decrease in computing hardware spending that Gartner's survey research showed for 2009.

Although this appears to be welcomed news by IT security and service professionals, Gartner warns that these projected upticks will mainly result from exchange rate differences that have the dollar looking weaker in the upcoming year. "Last quarter, we did not expect to see IT spending levels recover to 2008 levels until 2011, however, now, with the upward revision to the current dollar forecast, we are projecting that global IT spending this year will approach the level seen in 2008," noted Richard Gordon, research VP at Gartner.

Gordon understands that this forecast is optimistic, but he believes that exchange rates will play a pivotal role in 2010 with respect to IT spending. "Much of the increase in our revised 2010 forecast can be attributed to a projected decline in the value of the US dollar compared to 2009," he told Infosecurity.

Gartner expects the greatest increases in IT spending will occur in emerging markets, with Latin America coming in at 9.3% projected growth, followed by the Middle East at 7.7%, and Asia/Pacific at 7%. The company foresees more tepid growth in already established markets, forecasting a 5.2% increase in Western Europe, 2.5% in the US, and 1.8% in Japan.

Another survey, conducted by ITIC for Sunbelt Software, also points toward an increase in IT budgets, but only for about a quarter of organizations that responded. Twenty-six percent of organizations surveyed anticipated an increase in IT spending over the coming year, whereas only 15% foresaw a decrease in spending. However, more than one-third of organizations (35%) believed that their IT budget would remain stagnant year over year. Other interesting tidbits from the ITIC survey: 41% of organizations polled admit to extending the lifecycle of products to cope with the economic downturn, with 24% saying that they are retrofitting servers rather than purchasing new ones when needed.

Regardless of the survey data, security software companies are anticipating a far better 2010. As reported in a recent edition of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, executives from Symantec, McAfee, and Checkpoint all anticipate increased revenues in the upcoming year, with stock prices for all three companies soaring during the past several months.